Welcome to the Spacecraft Operation - In-orbit environment and effects forecast service

Environment and effects forecasts
Near-Earth space environment and effects forecasts are provided by these products:

• SaRIF provides colour-coded risk indicators showing the risk from internal charging and total ionising dose for the outer radiation belt and slot region;
• COMESEP provides forecasts of geomagnetic storms and solar energetic particle (SEP) radiation storms;
• HESPERIA provides forecasts of solar energetic particle (SEP) events at low and high proton energy ranges;
• Alert/E provides forecast of geomagnetic and solar radiation storms generated by the Met Office Space Weather Operations Centre (MOSWOC);
• FORIND provides nowcasts and forecasts of geomagnetic and solar indices needed for modelling in support of atmospheric drag calculation;
• SPM forecasts the number density and temperature of electrons inside and outside the plasmasphere;
• UAH provides geomagnetic indices, Dst Forecast, geomagnetic conditions and a regional geomagnetically induced currents proxy;
• IRF provides a forecast of geomagnetic indices: Kp, Dst and dB/dt;
• IMPC provides a near real-time information and data service for the current state of the ionosphere, related forecasts and warnings;
• EIS provides foF2 long term prediction maps and forecasted foF2 values for the next 24 hours over each ionosonde;
• ATMDEN provides atmospheric density estimates for atmospheric drag calculation;

Solar activity forecasts
Forecasts of solar activity and their propagation through the heliosphere are provided by these products:

• ROB/SIDC provides probabilistic forecasts for the occurrence of X-ray flares determined by the Solar Influences Data Analysis Center (SIDC);
• A-Effort is an on-line solar-flare prediction service that monitors, evaluates, and provides advance warning of intense solar flare activity;
• UKMO provides the probability for the occurance of solar flares generated by the Met Office Space Weather Operations Centre (MOSWOC);
• Flarecast is a fully automated forecasting system for solar flares (Currently under maintenance);
• Enlil/E provides predictions of CME arrival times and solar wind speed and density near Earth based on the Enlil 3d heliospheric model;
• ESWF uses an empirical relation to derive the solar wind speed at Earth distance based on the area of coronal holes;
• STA+CH provides a solar wind speed forecast, based on a STEREO-A persistence model;
• SWFSC/E provides a simplified overview of all the availabe solar wind speed models at Earth;
• DBEM provides CME arrival time predictions based on ensemble runs of the DBM model;
• PROPTOOL allows users to propagate CMEs, corotating structures and SEPs through the interplanetary medium;

This service page is curated by the ESC Space Radiation. For further information, please contact SSCC Helpdesk. 

Throughout its existence, the Sun goes through various non-stationary active and non-equilibrium (often eruptive) processes; this can be broadly regarded as solar activity. The eruptive events caused by solar surface magnetic activity travel through the interplanetary medium and cause geomagnetic disturbances and other phenomena that may affect the functioning of spacecraft. For this reason, forecast of solar activity and its possible effects on spacecraft is essential for every spacecraft operator. From the Products and Tools sections, a range of products can be accessed that can be useful for spacecraft operators.

Near-Earth environment and effects forecasts

Forecasts of spacecraft effects, such as internal and surface spacecraft charging, are provided by the SaRIF product for the outer radiation belt and slot region based on energetic electron spectra. Forecasts for solar proton events are provided by the COMESEP, HESPERIA and Alert/E products. Forecasts for geomagnetic storms in terms of indices are provided by the UAH, IRF, COMESEP, ALert/E and FORIND products. The latter product is focused towards nowcasts and forecasts of geomagnetic and solar indices needed for atmospheric modeling in support of atmospheric drag calculation. To access forecasts of the number density and the temperature of the electrons inside and outside the plasmasphere, visit SPM. The ionospheric conditions are forecasted by IMPC, EIS and ATMDEN.

Solar Activity forecasts and propagation through the heliosphere

Solar Flares forecasts are provided by automatic tools (A-Effort, Flarecast) and human forecasters (ROB/SIDC, UKMO, ASUCAS/SPS). The CME propagation times are provided DBEM and Enlil/E. The solar wind speed predictions can be obtained from three products: ESWF, STA+CH, and Enlil/E (also provides solar wind density). A simplified overview of all these models is available through SWFSC/E. To track CMEs, co-rotating streams and energetic particles in the heliosphere, the tool PROPTOOL can be used. The SIDC and ASUCAS/SPS also provide a daily space weather bulletin.

Auxiliary Information

This section provides links to web pages or resources that are not part of the ESA Space Weather Service Network or esa.int domain.  These sites are not under ESA control, and therefore ESA is not responsible for any of the information or links that you may find there. 

Reference documents:

• ECSS-E-ST-10-04C Space environment (15 June 2020)
• ECSS-E-HB-10-12A Calculation of radiation and its effects and margin policy handbook (issued on 17 December 2010)

For further information, please contact the SSCC Helpdesk.