Welcome to the Spacecraft Operation - Mission risk analysis service

A number of models and in-orbit sensor datasets are made available with the help of tools and products such as:

• the Space Environment Information System (SPENVIS) coupling several empirical and engineering models of the space environment and its effects on spacecraft or components based on a mission plan;
• the Space Environment Data System (SEDAT) allows engineering analyses to be carried out on datasets related to the spacecraft charged particle environments (Currently under maintenance);
• the Solar Energetic Particle Environment Modelling application (SEPEM) allowing solar energetic particle statistical analyses on an extended set of cross-calibrated data;
• the European Debris Impact Database (EDID) provides data processing and dissemination functions for measurements from European debris and meteoroid impact detectors;
• the Space Research Laboratory Solar Energetic Particles (UTU-SEP) products provide access to two high energy SEP event lists as well as the calculation of the expected high energy fluence and worst-case flux for protons and heavier ions for a specific mission length due to SEPs;
• the Next Generation Radiation Monitor (NGRM) on EDRS-C provides measurements of energetic electrons and proton fluxes at GEO orbit;
• measurements and derived data products from the Energetic Particle Telescope (EPT) on PROBA-V;
• measurements and derived data products from the Standard Radiation Environment Monitors (SREM) on Proba-1, Integral, Rosetta, Herschel and Planck;
• the electron population model from Mullard Space Science Laboratory (MSSL) for LEO, MEO and GEO as function of solar wind speed and Kp index;
• the SWIFF Plasmasphere Model (SPM) dynamical simulation provides the number density and temperatures of the electrons as a function of time;
• the Satellite Risk Indicators Forecast (SaRIF) provides colour-coded risk indicators showing the risk from internal charging and total ionising dose for the outer radiation belt and slot region, as well as a recontruction of these environments;
• the Space Weather Data Browsing and Analysis (SWE Data) provides access to space weather environment data.

This service page is curated by the ESC Space Radiation. For further information, please contact SSCC Helpdesk. 

The dynamic space environment caused by a multitude of space weather phenomena (e.g. solar flares, coronal mass ejections, solar energetic particle events) may cause anomalous effects and have severe consequences for spacecraft. During the planning phase of a mission or specific operations, a detailed mission risk analysis and an assessment of the susceptibility due to space weather effects need to be performed. The expected space environment conditions can be obtained from statistical models and historical data.

From the Products section, a range of products can be accessed that provide information on space weather events and the space environment conditions during a specific time in the past.

Measurements and detection of solar flares and coronal mass ejections are available from the Solar Influences Data Analysis Center (SIDC) and the Kanzelhöhe Observatory (KSO). The international sunspot number is provided by the SIDC as well. Solar wind conditions and statistical long-term plasma conditions at L1 can be obtained through the Product Browser, Product Assessment Report and Statistical Products pages from the Heliospheric Weather Expert Service Centre (HPARC/PB, HPARC/PR and HPARC/ST).

Catalogues of high and very high-energy solar particle events, and models of the very high-energy solar energetic proton and heavy ion fluences and peak fluxes are provided by the University of Turku (UTU). The Solar Energetic Particle Environment Modelling (SEPEM) application server provides a reference event list for solar energetic protons, a reference data set for protons and helium, and tools to perform solar energetic particle statistical analyses on an extended set of cross-calibrated data. An archive of energetic particle flux measurements from the Next Generation Radiation Monitor (NGRM) on EDRS-C at Geosynchronous Equatorial Orbit (GEO), the Energetic Particle Telescope (EPT) on board PROBA-V at Low Earth Orbit (LEO) can be accessed, as well as daily radiation situation reports comparing the measurements from several Standard Radiation Environment Monitors (SREM) in various key regions with reference particle rates are provided. Electron population models at GEO and LEO are provided by Mullard Space Science Laboratory (MSSL). Besides forecasts for spacecraft effects and the radiation environment for the outer radiation belt and slot region, the SaRIF product also provides a post event reconstruction for the energetic electron spectra in those regions based on the BAS-RBM model.

An archive of Total Electron Content (TEC) is provided through the Swarm Utilisation Analysis (SUA) interface provided by the German Research Centre for Geosciences (GFZ), while TEC and foF2 maps for the European region are provided through the European Ionosonde Service (EIS) operated by the National Observatory of Athens (NOA). An archive of the geomagnetic indices Kp and Ap is provided by GFZ as well.

A large set of measurements can also be accessed through the Space Weather Data Browsing and Analysis (SWE Data) and AMDA web interfaces. The European Debris Impact Database (EDID) contains a large database of events measured from debris and meteoroid impact detectors together with spacecraft housekeeping data.

In order to study the specific impact on a spacecraft in more depth, a tool such as the Space Environment Information System (SPENVIS) could be considered. This tool allows the execution of a set of space environment models based on a mission scenario (mission duration, typical spacecraft trajectories and spacecraft attitude) and to evaluate impacts and risks by propagating the results into engineering models. The tool includes graphical visualisation and an extended help with background information and references to the European standards.

A detailed overview of the typical programmatic concerns related to the space environment is provided in the User Manual of the service page for "Spacecraft Design - Environment specification: data archive".

Auxiliary Information

This section provides links to web pages or resources that are not part of the ESA Space Weather Service Network or esa.int domain.  These sites are not under ESA control, and therefore ESA is not responsible for any of the information or links that you may find there. 

Reference documents:

• ECSS-E-ST-10-04C Space environment (15 June 2020)
• ECSS-E-HB-10-12A Calculation of radiation and its effects and margin policy handbook (issued on 17 December 2010)

For further information, please contact the SSCC Helpdesk.