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ESA SSA SWE Service Page Mockup: SCO/for

Spacecraft Operation - In-orbit environment and effects forecast


The internal charging current and risk indicator for the past 8 days and a forecast for the next
24 hours provided by SaRIF for the location of the GOES-15 satellite at GEO. The internal
charging is calculated as the charging current behind 0.5 mm of Al shielding caused by
electrons from 150 keV up to 10 MeV.

The service "Spacecraft Operation - In-orbit environment and effects forecast" aims to provide an estimate for the near future of the space environment and its effects that could be experiences in regard to the operation of the spacecraft. To obtain a forecast of the space environment, the SSA SWE network provides monitoring and forecasting of phenomena that can lead to potentially hazardous and sudden effects on spacecraft (e.g. magnetic storms, substorms, high-speed streams, solar energetic particle events, Earth-directed CMEs, meteor streams, and debris clouds). This continuous real-time monitoring and forecasting of the space weather environment provides the relevant information to take adequate decisions related to spacecraft operations to limit the impact of space weather. Real-time data allows the system to provide forecast of the effects on spacecraft operations of geomagnetic and ionospheric disturbances, as well as increased fluxes of particle radiation, meteoroids and space debris.

The service is intended for personnel such as spacecraft operators who need a forecast of space weather conditions and in-orbit effects for their current and future operations.

This service is implemented through a combination of products, tools and alerts which can be found through the following tabs along with expert support provided by the teams constituting the SWE Network. Should you require further guidance in the use of this service, or have specific questions about any aspects of the service presented here, don't hesitate to contact the Helpdesk.

 

Environment and effects forecasts
Near-Earth space environment and effects forecasts are provided by these products:

  • SaRIF provides colour-coded risk indicators showing the risk from internal charging and total ionising dose for the outer radiation belt and slot region;
  • COMESEP provides forecasts of geomagnetic storms and solar energetic particle (SEP) radiation storms;
  • Alert/E provides forecast of geomagnetic and solar radiation storms generated by the Met Office Space Weather Operations Centre (MOSWOC);
  • FORIND provides nowcasts and forecasts of geomagnetic and solar indices needed for modelling in support of atmospheric drag calculation;
  • SPM forecasts the number density and temperature of electrons inside and outside the plasmasphere;
  • UAH provides geomagnetic indices, Dst Forecast, geomagnetic conditions and a regional geomagnetically induced currents proxy;
  • IRF provides a forecast of geomagnetic indices: Kp, Dst and dB/dt;
  • IMPC provides a near real-time information and data service for the current state of the ionosphere, related forecasts and warnings;
  • EIS provides foF2 long term prediction maps and forecasted foF2 values for the next 24 hours over each ionosonde;
  • ATMDEN provides atmospheric density estimates for atmospheric drag calculation;


Solar activity forecasts
Forecasts of solar activity and their propagation through the heliosphere are provided by these products:

  • ROB/SIDC provides probabilistic forecasts for the occurrence of X-ray flares determined by the Solar Influences Data Analysis Center (SIDC);
  • A-Effort is an on-line solar-flare prediction service that monitors, evaluates, and provides advance warning of intense solar flare activity;
  • UKMO provides the probability for the occurance of solar flares generated by the Met Office Space Weather Operations Centre (MOSWOC);
  • Flarecast is a fully automated forecasting system for solar flares;
  • Enlil/E provides predictions of CME arrival times and solar wind speed and density near Earth based on the Enlil 3d heliospheric model;
  • ESWF uses an empirical relation to derive the solar wind speed at Earth distance based on the area of coronal holes;
  • STA+CH provides a solar wind speed forecast, based on a STEREO-A persistence model;
  • DBM provides CME near-Earth arrival time predictions based on the magnetohydrodynamical drag;
  • DBEM provides CME arrival time predictions based on ensemble runs of the DBM model;
  • PROPTOOL allows users to propagate CMEs, corotating structures and SEPs through the interplanetary medium;


This service page is curated by the ESC Space Radiation. For further information, please contact SSCC Help-desk

Throughout its existence, the Sun goes through various non-stationary active and non-equilibrium (often eruptive) processes; this can be broadly regarded as solar activity. The eruptive events caused by solar surface magnetic activity travel through the interplanetary medium and cause geomagnetic disturbances and other phenomena that may affect the functioning of spacecraft. For this reason, forecast of solar activity and its possible effects on spacecraft is essential for every spacecraft operator. From the Products and Tools tabs, a range of products can be accessed that can be useful for spacecraft operators.

Near-Earth environment and effects forecasts

Forecasts of spacecraft effects, such as internal and surface spacecraft charging, are provided by the SaRIF product for the outer radiation belt and slot region based on energetic electron spectra. Forecasts for solar proton events are provided by the COMESEP and Alert/E products. Forecasts for geomagnetic storms in terms of indices are provided by the UAH, IRF, COMESEP, ALert/E and FORIND products. The latter product is focused towards nowcasts and forecasts of geomagnetic and solar indices needed for atmospheric modeling in support of atmospheric drag calculation. To access forecasts of the number density and the temperature of the electrons inside and outside the plasmasphere, visit SPM. The ionospheric conditions are forecasted by IMPC, EIS and ATMDEN.

Solar Activity forecasts and propagation through the heliosphere

Solar Flares are forecasted by various products: ROB/SIDC, A-Effort, Flarecast and UKMO. The CME propagation times are provided by DBM (near Earth), DBEM, and Enlil/E. The solar wind speed predictions can be obtained from three products: ESWF, STA+CH, and Enlil/E (also provides solar wind density). To track CMEs, co-rotating streams and energetic particles in the heliosphere, the tool PROPTOOL can be used. The SIDC also provides a daily space weather bulletin.

For further information, please contact the SSCC Help-desk

Solar Activity: Forecasts

Solar Flares
  • FLARECAST Solar flare forecast
  • A-EFFort Solar flare forecast
  • SIDC Latest Solar flare forecast
  • SIDC Latest daily space weather bulletin
  • UKMO Latest Solar flare forecast
     UKMO
CMEs
  • SIDC Latest daily space weather bulletin
CME propagation forecast
  • Heliospheric solar wind forecasts for Venus
  • Near-Earth CME arrival predictions (WSA-Enlil + Ensemble)
  • Heliospheric solar wind forecasts for Mercury
  • Heliospheric solar wind forecasts for Mars
  • CME near-Earth arrival time predictions (DBM)
     DBM
  • CME arrival time predictions (DBEM)
     DBEM
  • H-ESC product assessment report
  • Heliospheric propagation tool
Coronal Holes
  • SIDC Latest daily space weather bulletin
Solar Disc Magnetic Fields
    International Sunspot number
    • SIDC/SILSO Latest sunspot number forecast
    • Sunspot Number Forecast SC 12-month
       FORIND
    • Sunspot Number Forecast CM 12-month
       FORIND
    • Sunspot Number Forecast ISM 12-month
       FORIND
    • Sunspot Number Forecast ICM 12-month
       FORIND
    • Sunspot Number Forecast IMLM 12-month
       FORIND
    • Sunspot Number Forecast multi-year
       FORIND
    Sunspot Group Data
      Solar Filament Data
        10.7cm Solar Radio Flux (F10.7)
        • SIDC Latest 10.7cm Solar radio flux (F10.7) forecast
        • F10.7 Index Forecast 27-day/BGS
           FORIND
        • F10.7 Index Forecast multi-year
           FORIND
        • F10.7 Index Forecast 27-day/SWPC
           FORIND
        • F10.7 Index Forecast 45-day
           FORIND
        • F10.7 Index Forecast 30-day Absolute
           FORIND
        • F10.7 Index Forecast 30-day Adjusted
           FORIND
        Solar EUV Index (S10.7)
          Solar EUV Index (E10.7)
            Solar FUV Index (M10.7)
              Solar X-ray & UV Index (Y10.7)
                Ionospheric Index (IG12)
                • IG12 Index Forecast multi-yeart
                   FORIND
                Solar X-ray Flux
                  Solar EUV Integrated Flux
                    Solar UV Flux

                      Interplanetary Medium at L1: (Near-) Real-time Measurements

                      Solar Wind Bulk Density

                        Interplanetary Medium at L1: Forecasts

                        High Energy >10 MeV Protons
                        • Near-Earth space weather notifications
                        High Energy >10 MeV/nuc Ions
                          1-10 MeV Protons
                            1-10 MeV/nuc Ions
                              0.03-1 MeV/nuc Ions
                                2-50 MeV Solar Electrons
                                  30 keV-8 MeV Electrons
                                    Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF)
                                      Solar Wind Bulk Velocity
                                      • SIDC Latest daily space weather bulletin
                                      • Near-Earth solar wind forecasts (WSA-Enlil + Ensemble)
                                      • Empirical solar wind speed forecast
                                         ESWF
                                      • Solar wind speed forecast (STEREO-A persistence model)
                                         STA+CH
                                      • AWARE_NEXT Enhanced 24 hour solar wind forecast
                                      Solar Wind Bulk Density
                                      • Near-Earth solar wind forecasts (WSA-Enlil + Ensemble)

                                      Interplanetary Medium Outside L1: Forecasts

                                      Solar Energetic Particle Events
                                      • SIDC Latest daily space weather bulletin
                                      Interplanetary Medium Data
                                      • Heliospheric solar wind forecasts for Venus
                                      • Heliospheric solar wind forecasts for Mercury
                                      • Heliospheric solar wind forecasts for Mars
                                      • Solar wind propagation tool

                                      Magnetospheric Environment: (Near-) Real-time Measurements

                                      Thermal Ions Density and Temperature

                                        Magnetospheric Environment: Forecasts

                                        Geomagnetic Storm Condition
                                          Geomagnetic Indices Kp and K
                                          • SIDC Latest daily space weather bulletin
                                          • Kp 3-hour Index Forecast 3-day
                                             FORIND
                                          • Wing 3-hour Kp Index Forecast 1-hour
                                             FORIND
                                          • Wing 3-hour Kp Index Forecast 4-hour
                                             FORIND
                                          • Largest Kp Index Forecast 27-day
                                             FORIND
                                          • Short term (1 hour) Kp forecast
                                             TGO
                                          • Forecast of Kp
                                             IRF
                                          Geomagnetic Index Ap and A
                                          • SIDC Latest daily space weather bulletin
                                          • ap index Forecast 27-day
                                             FORIND
                                          • ap index Forecast 3-day/SWPC
                                             FORIND
                                          • ap index Forecast 27-day/SWPC
                                             FORIND
                                          • ap index Forecast 45-day
                                             FORIND
                                          • 27 day global forecast issued every 24 hours
                                             TGO
                                          Geomagnetic Index Dst
                                          • COMESEP Geomagnetic storm forecast
                                          • Dst Index Forecast 1-hour
                                             FORIND
                                          • SolarHoldover
                                             UAH
                                          • Forecast of Dst
                                             IRF
                                          High Energy >10 MeV Protons
                                          • GOES-15 Radiation Environment
                                             SaRIF
                                          • GOES-14 Radiation Environment
                                             SaRIF
                                          • GIOVE-A Radiation Environment
                                             SaRIF
                                          • Slot Region Radiation Environment
                                             SaRIF
                                          • COMESEP SEP forecast
                                          High Energy >10 MeV/nuc Ions
                                            1-10 MeV Protons
                                              1-10 MeV/nuc Ions
                                                0.03-1 MeV/nuc Ions
                                                  30 keV-8 MeV Electrons
                                                  • GOES-15 Radiation Environment
                                                     SaRIF
                                                  • GOES-14 Radiation Environment
                                                     SaRIF
                                                  • GIOVE-A Radiation Environment
                                                     SaRIF
                                                  • Slot Region Radiation Environment
                                                     SaRIF
                                                  • MOSWOC Forecast
                                                     SaRIF
                                                  Thermal and Supra-thermal Electron and Ion Energy Spectra
                                                  • SWIFF Plasmasphere model (SPM)
                                                     SPM
                                                  Thermal Ions Density and Temperature

                                                    Thermospheric and Atmospheric Conditions: Forecasts

                                                    Vertical Total Electron Content Map
                                                    • TEC map (Europe), 1hr forecast
                                                       IMPC
                                                    • TEC map (Global), 1hr forecast
                                                       IMPC
                                                    • TEC and Err(TEC) 6-hour forecast modelled maps
                                                       ISM
                                                    • TEC and Err(TEC) 6h forecast modelled values at a given location
                                                       ISM
                                                    URSI Ionospheric Parameters
                                                    • European maps of foF2 long term predictions
                                                       EIS
                                                    • Maps of forecasted foF2 over Europe for the next 24 hours
                                                       EIS
                                                    • Forecasted foF2 values for the next 24 hours over each ionosonde
                                                       EIS
                                                    Neutral Density in Thermosphere
                                                      Neutral Wind Velocity in Thermosphere
                                                        Scintillation Indices and Parameters
                                                        • S4 and Err(S4) 6-hour forecast modelled maps
                                                           ISM
                                                        • SigmaPhi and Err(SigmaPhi) 6-hour forecast modelled maps
                                                           ISM
                                                        • S4 and Err(S4) 6h forecast modelled values at a given location
                                                           ISM
                                                        • SigmaPhi and Err(SigmaPhi) 6h forecast modelled values at a given location
                                                           ISM
                                                        Atomic Oxygen Density
                                                          Local External Magnetic Field on Ground
                                                          • Forecasts of dB/dt
                                                             IRF
                                                          Neutral Density and Wind

                                                            Microparticle Environment: Forecasts

                                                            Micro Particle Flux
                                                              Known Periods/events of Increased Microparticle Flux

                                                                Spacecraft Effects and Anomolies: Forecasts

                                                                Spacecraft Radiation Monitors
                                                                  Orbital Data of Spacecraft Carrying Space Weather Instruments
                                                                    Spacecraft Housekeeping Telemetry
                                                                      Deep Dielectric Charging
                                                                      • GOES-15 Internal Charging Current
                                                                         SaRIF
                                                                      • GOES-14 Internal Charging Current
                                                                         SaRIF
                                                                      • GIOVE-A Internal Charging Current
                                                                         SaRIF
                                                                      • Slot Region Internal Charging Current
                                                                         SaRIF
                                                                      Surface Charging
                                                                        Floating Spacecraft Potential

                                                                          The Drag-Based Model (DBM) tool provides predictions of the interplanetary coronal mass ejection (ICME) travel and its arrival at an arbitrary ecliptic-plane location or at already listed planets and satellites in ecliptic-plane orbits. Calculations are based on the assumption that the dominant force in the heliospheric dynamics of ICMEs is the magnetohydrodynamical (MHD) equivalent of the aerodynamic drag.

                                                                          The Drag-Based Ensemble Model (DBEM) tool provides predictions of the Interplanetary Coronal Mass Ejection (ICME) travel and its arrival at an arbitrary ecliptic-plane location. Calculations are based on the standard DBM assumption that the dominant force is the MHD equivalent of aerodynamic drag. In the ensemble version the model is run multiple times by perturbing input parameters to build up a statistical view of the most likely outcome.

                                                                          The propagation tool supports the assessment of CME (Coronal Mass Ejections) and CIR (Corotating Interaction Regions)and SEP (Solar Energetic Particle) arrival times at planets, spacecraft and other solar system objects such as comets. It supports the tracking of heliospheric structures using white light J-maps and has access to catalogues of CME/CIR trajectories. It is also connected to science archives of in-situ data (AMDA) and imagery data to assist with posteriori analysis.

                                                                          All Quiet Alert

                                                                          SIDC Latest All quiet alert

                                                                          End-of-quiet Alert

                                                                          SIDC Latest All quiet alert

                                                                          Solar Flare Detection

                                                                          UGraz/KSO Latest Solar flare alert

                                                                          SIDC Latest Solar GOES-flare alert

                                                                          SIDC Latest human moderated alert

                                                                          Solar Flare Detection and Location

                                                                          UGraz/KSO Latest Solar flare alert

                                                                          SIDC Latest human moderated alert

                                                                          CME Onset

                                                                          SIDC/CACTus Latest automated halo CME alert

                                                                          H-ESC product assessment report

                                                                          No preview available

                                                                          Near-Earth space weather notifications

                                                                          No preview available

                                                                          Near-Earth CME arrival predictions (WSA-Enlil + Ensemble)

                                                                          No preview available

                                                                          Halo CME Onset

                                                                          SIDC/CACTus Latest automated halo CME alert

                                                                          SIDC Latest human moderated alert

                                                                          CIR Alert

                                                                          SIDC Latest human moderated alert

                                                                          AWARE_NEXT Enhanced 24 hour solar wind forecast

                                                                          Near-Earth space weather notifications

                                                                          No preview available

                                                                          Automated WARnings of STEREO-A arrivals

                                                                          Automated WARnings of Earth arrivals

                                                                           AWARE

                                                                          Solar Particle Event Onset

                                                                          Near-Earth space weather notifications

                                                                          No preview available

                                                                          SIDC Latest human moderated alert

                                                                          Geomagnetic Storm Warning / Solar Wind Shock Arrival

                                                                          Near-Earth space weather notifications

                                                                          No preview available

                                                                          Automated WARnings of STEREO-A arrivals

                                                                          Automated WARnings of Earth arrivals

                                                                           AWARE

                                                                          Geomagnetic Storm Onset

                                                                          SolarHeed

                                                                           UAH

                                                                          No preview available

                                                                          UAH-SWE Subscription

                                                                           UAH

                                                                          No preview available

                                                                          Sentinel G

                                                                           UAH

                                                                          No preview available

                                                                          Sentinel C

                                                                           UAH

                                                                          No preview available

                                                                          UAH-SWE Report

                                                                           UAH

                                                                          No preview available

                                                                          E-mail alerts for geomagnetic disturbances

                                                                           RESOSS

                                                                          No preview available

                                                                          SIDC Latest human moderated alert

                                                                          Ionospheric Disturbance Detection

                                                                          Alerts for ionospheric disturbances in the European sector

                                                                           EIS

                                                                          SISTED warning

                                                                           IonSAT

                                                                          No preview available

                                                                          SOLERA warning

                                                                           IonSAT

                                                                          No preview available

                                                                          Ground Level Enhancement Detection

                                                                          GLE alert+

                                                                           ANeMoS

                                                                          This section provides links to web pages or resources that are not part of the SSA Space Weather Network or esa.int domain.  These sites are not under ESA control, and therefore ESA is not responsible for any of the information or links that you may find there. 

                                                                          Reference documents

                                                                          • ECSS-E-ST-10-04C Space environment (15 November 2008)
                                                                          • ECSS-E-HB-10-12A Calculation of radiation and its effects and margin policy handbook (issued on 17 December 2010)