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ESA SSA SWE Service Page Mockup: SCH/for

Human Spaceflight - Increased crew radiation exposure risk


A screen capture from the COMESEP Alert System web page from 21 September 2015
shows the issued geomagnetic and SEP storm alerts following the detection of two
solar flares and a CME in the top part. A timeline of these alerts is shown in the
bottom part where the colours represent the expected risk level.

The service “Human Spaceflight: Increased crew radiation exposure risk” aims to provide information which can be used to help estimate the expected in-flight radiation dose. Radiation environments considered include solar energetic particles, galactic cosmic rays, and Earth’s radiation belts. This service is made possible by providing forecasts of local area radiation fluxes combined with spacecraft and human phantom shielding geometry models. The service is intended for personnel involved in monitoring the expected radiation environment during crewed space missions.

This service is implemented through a combination of products, tools and alerts which can be found through the following tabs along with expert support provided by the teams constituting the SWE Network. Should you require further guidance in the use of this service, or have specific questions about any aspects of the service presented here, don’t hesitate to contact the Helpdesk.

 

Near-Earth environment forecasts
Forecasts for near-Earth solar energetic particles and geomagnetic conditions are provided by these products:

  • COMESEP provides forecasts of geomagnetic storms and solar energetic particle (SEP) radiation storms;
  • Alert/E provides forecast of geomagnetic and solar radiation storms generated by the Met Office Space Weather Operations Centre (MOSWOC);
  • FORIND provides nowcasts and forecasts of geomagnetic and solar indices needed for modelling in support of atmospheric drag calculation;
  • UAH provides geomagnetic indices, Dst Forecast, geomagnetic conditions and a regional geomagnetically induced currents proxy;
  • IRF provides a forecast of geomagnetic indices: Kp, Dst and dB/dt;


Solar activity forecasts
Forecasts of solar activity and their propagation through the heliosphere are provided by these products:

  • ROB/SIDC provides probabilistic forecasts for the occurrence of X-ray flares determined by the Solar Influences Data Analysis Center (SIDC);
  • A-Effort is an on-line solar-flare prediction service that monitors, evaluates, and provides advance warning of intense solar flare activity;
  • UKMO provides the probability for the occurance of solar flares generated by the Met Office Space Weather Operations Centre (MOSWOC);
  • Flarecast is a fully automated forecasting system for solar flares;
  • Enlil/E provides predictions of CME arrival times and solar wind speed and density near Earth based on the Enlil 3d heliospheric model;
  • DBM provides CME near-Earth arrival time predictions based on the magnetohydrodynamical drag;
  • DBEM provides CME arrival time predictions based on ensemble runs of the DBM model;
  • PROPTOOL allows users to propagate CMEs, corotating structures and SEPs through the interplanetary medium;


This service page is curated by the ESC Space Radiation. For further information, please contact SSCC Helpdesk.

Particle radiation in the form of Solar Energetic Particles and Galactic Cosmic Rays is considered the main hazard for human spaceflight, specifically when considering a potential return trip to the Moon or interplanetary travel in general. Even at Low Earth Orbit (LEO) like the International Space Station, particle radiation poses a risk as energetic particles can penetrate deep into the magnetosphere, in particular in the polar regions. Furthermore, spacecraft passing the Van Allen radiation belts need to take into account the increased radiation levels in these regions. Forecasting the space environment to evaluate the possible health effects of space particle radiation on humans is therefore necessary.

Near-Earth environment forecasts

Forecasts for solar proton events are provided by the COMESEP and Alert/E products. The COMESEP Alert System delivers fully automated alerts for the risk of an SEP event with protons energies >10 MeV and >60 MeV following the obervation of a M- or X- class flare. Alert/E provides the probability for a solar radiation storm of protons with energies >10 MeV for the next 4 days and is updated twice daily by the forecaster of the Met Office Space Weather Operations Centre (MOSWOC). Forecasts for geomagnetic storms in terms of indices are provided by the UAH, IRF, COMESEP, ALert/E and FORIND products.

Solar Activity forecasts and propagation through the heliosphere

Solar Flares forecasts are provided by automatic tools (A-Effort, Flarecast) and human forecasters (ROB/SIDC, UKMO). The CME propagation times are provided by DBM (near Earth), DBEM, and Enlil/E. To track CMEs, corotating streams and energetic particles in the heliosphere, the tool PROPTOOL can be used. The SIDC also provides a daily space weather bulletin.

For further information, please contact SSCC Helpdesk

Solar Activity: (Near-) Real-time Measurements

10.7cm Solar Radio Flux (F10.7)

    Solar Activity: Model and Medium-term Forecast

    Solar Flares
    • FLARECAST Solar flare forecast
    • A-EFFort Solar flare forecast
    • SIDC Latest Solar flare forecast
    • SIDC Latest daily space weather bulletin
    • UKMO Latest Solar flare forecast
       UKMO
    CMEs
    • SIDC Latest daily space weather bulletin
    Coronal Holes
    • SIDC Latest daily space weather bulletin
    Solar Disc Magnetic Fields
      International Sunspot number
      • Sunspot Number Forecast SC 12-month
         FORIND
      • Sunspot Number Forecast CM 12-month
         FORIND
      • Sunspot Number Forecast ISM 12-month
         FORIND
      • Sunspot Number Forecast ICM 12-month
         FORIND
      • Sunspot Number Forecast IMLM 12-month
         FORIND
      • Sunspot Number Forecast multi-year
         FORIND
      10.7cm Solar Radio Flux (F10.7)
      • SIDC Latest 10.7cm Solar radio flux (F10.7) forecast
      • F10.7 Index Forecast 27-day/BGS
         FORIND
      • F10.7 Index Forecast multi-year
         FORIND
      • F10.7 Index Forecast 27-day/SWPC
         FORIND
      • F10.7 Index Forecast 45-day
         FORIND
      • F10.7 Index Forecast 30-day Absolute
         FORIND
      • F10.7 Index Forecast 30-day Adjusted
         FORIND
      Solar EUV Index (S10.7)
        Solar EUV Index (E10.7)
          Solar FUV Index (M10.7)
            Solar X-ray & UV Index (Y10.7)
              Ionospheric Index (IG12)
              • IG12 Index Forecast multi-year
                 FORIND
              EUV Images of Sun
                White Light Solar Imaging
                  Soft X-ray Images of the Sun
                    Solar EUV Images Outside of Sun-Earth Line
                      Solar Coronagraphic Images Outside of Sun-Earth Line
                        White-light wide-angle Coronagraph Images
                          Solar X-ray Flux
                            Solar EUV Integrated Flux
                              Solar UV Flux

                                Solar Activity: Forecasts

                                Solar Flares
                                • FLARECAST Solar flare forecast
                                • A-EFFort Solar flare forecast
                                • SIDC Latest Solar flare forecast
                                • SIDC Latest daily space weather bulletin
                                • UKMO Latest Solar flare forecast
                                   UKMO
                                CMEs
                                • SIDC Latest daily space weather bulletin
                                Coronal Holes
                                • SIDC Latest daily space weather bulletin
                                Solar Disc Magnetic Fields
                                  International Sunspot number
                                  • Sunspot Number Forecast SC 12-month
                                     FORIND
                                  • Sunspot Number Forecast CM 12-month
                                     FORIND
                                  • Sunspot Number Forecast ISM 12-month
                                     FORIND
                                  • Sunspot Number Forecast ICM 12-month
                                     FORIND
                                  • Sunspot Number Forecast IMLM 12-month
                                     FORIND
                                  • Sunspot Number Forecast multi-year
                                     FORIND
                                  10.7cm Solar Radio Flux (F10.7)
                                  • SIDC Latest 10.7cm Solar radio flux (F10.7) forecast
                                  • F10.7 Index Forecast 27-day/BGS
                                     FORIND
                                  • F10.7 Index Forecast multi-year
                                     FORIND
                                  • F10.7 Index Forecast 27-day/SWPC
                                     FORIND
                                  • F10.7 Index Forecast 45-day
                                     FORIND
                                  • F10.7 Index Forecast 30-day Absolute
                                     FORIND
                                  • F10.7 Index Forecast 30-day Adjusted
                                     FORIND
                                  Solar EUV Index (S10.7)
                                    Solar EUV Index (E10.7)
                                      Solar FUV Index (M10.7)
                                        Solar X-ray & UV Index (Y10.7)
                                          Ionospheric Index (IG12)
                                          • IG12 Index Forecast multi-year
                                             FORIND
                                          EUV Images of Sun
                                            White Light Solar Imaging
                                              Soft X-ray Images of the Sun
                                                Solar EUV Images Outside of Sun-Earth Line
                                                  Solar Coronagraphic Images Outside of Sun-Earth Line
                                                    White-light wide-angle Coronagraph Images
                                                      Solar X-ray Flux
                                                        Solar EUV Integrated Flux
                                                          Solar UV Flux

                                                            Interplanetary Medium at L1: Model and Medium-term Forecast

                                                            High Energy >10 MeV Protons
                                                            • Near-Earth space weather notifications
                                                            High Energy >10 MeV/nuc Ions
                                                              1-10 MeV Protons
                                                                1-10 MeV/nuc Ions
                                                                  0.03-1 MeV/nuc Ions
                                                                    2-50 MeV Solar Electrons
                                                                      30 keV-8 MeV Electrons
                                                                        Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF)
                                                                          Solar Wind Bulk Velocity
                                                                          • SIDC Latest daily space weather bulletin
                                                                          • Near-Earth solar wind forecasts (WSA-Enlil + Ensemble)
                                                                          • Empirical solar wind speed forecast
                                                                             ESWF
                                                                          • Solar wind speed forecast (STEREO-A persistence model)
                                                                             STA+CH
                                                                          • AWARE_NEXT Enhanced 24 hour solar wind forecast
                                                                          Solar Wind Bulk Density
                                                                          • Near-Earth solar wind forecasts (WSA-Enlil + Ensemble)

                                                                          Interplanetary Medium at L1: Forecasts

                                                                          High Energy >10 MeV Protons
                                                                          • Near-Earth space weather notifications
                                                                          High Energy >10 MeV/nuc Ions
                                                                            1-10 MeV Protons
                                                                              1-10 MeV/nuc Ions
                                                                                0.03-1 MeV/nuc Ions
                                                                                  2-50 MeV Solar Electrons
                                                                                    30 keV-8 MeV Electrons
                                                                                      Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF)
                                                                                        Solar Wind Bulk Velocity
                                                                                        • SIDC Latest daily space weather bulletin
                                                                                        • Near-Earth solar wind forecasts (WSA-Enlil + Ensemble)
                                                                                        • Empirical solar wind speed forecast
                                                                                           ESWF
                                                                                        • Solar wind speed forecast (STEREO-A persistence model)
                                                                                           STA+CH
                                                                                        • AWARE_NEXT Enhanced 24 hour solar wind forecast
                                                                                        Solar Wind Bulk Density
                                                                                        • Near-Earth solar wind forecasts (WSA-Enlil + Ensemble)

                                                                                        Interplanetary Medium Outside L1: Model and Medium-term Forecast

                                                                                        Solar Energetic Particle Events
                                                                                        • SIDC Latest daily space weather bulletin
                                                                                        Interplanetary Medium Data
                                                                                        • Heliospheric solar wind forecasts for Mars
                                                                                        • Heliospheric solar wind forecasts for Mercury
                                                                                        • Heliospheric solar wind forecasts for Venus
                                                                                        • Solar wind propagation tool

                                                                                        Interplanetary Medium Outside L1: Forecasts

                                                                                        Solar Energetic Particle Events
                                                                                        • SIDC Latest daily space weather bulletin
                                                                                        Interplanetary Medium Data
                                                                                        • Heliospheric solar wind forecasts for Mars
                                                                                        • Heliospheric solar wind forecasts for Mercury
                                                                                        • Heliospheric solar wind forecasts for Venus
                                                                                        • Solar wind propagation tool

                                                                                        Magnetospheric Environment: (Near-) Real-time Measurements

                                                                                        Plasma Drift Velocity

                                                                                          Magnetospheric Environment: Model and Medium-term Forecast

                                                                                          Geomagnetic Storm Condition
                                                                                          • ap index forecast
                                                                                             BGS
                                                                                          • Ap index forecast
                                                                                             BGS
                                                                                          • 72-hour K(GBI) forecast
                                                                                             BGS
                                                                                          Geomagnetic Indices Kp and K
                                                                                          • SIDC Latest daily space weather bulletin
                                                                                          • Kp 3-hour Index Forecast 3-day
                                                                                             FORIND
                                                                                          • Wing 3-hour Kp Index Forecast 1-hour
                                                                                             FORIND
                                                                                          • Wing 3-hour Kp Index Forecast 4-hour
                                                                                             FORIND
                                                                                          • Largest Kp Index Forecast 27-day
                                                                                             FORIND
                                                                                          • Forecasts of dB/dt
                                                                                             IRF
                                                                                          • 72-hour K(GBI) forecast
                                                                                             BGS
                                                                                          • Short term (1 hour) Kp forecast
                                                                                          Geomagnetic Index Ap and A
                                                                                          • SIDC Latest daily space weather bulletin
                                                                                          • ap index Forecast 27-day
                                                                                             FORIND
                                                                                          • ap index Forecast 3-day/SWPC
                                                                                             FORIND
                                                                                          • ap index Forecast 27-day/SWPC
                                                                                             FORIND
                                                                                          • ap index Forecast 45-day
                                                                                             FORIND
                                                                                          • ap index Forecast 3-day/BGS
                                                                                             FORIND
                                                                                          • ap index forecast
                                                                                             BGS
                                                                                          • Ap index forecast
                                                                                             BGS
                                                                                          Geomagnetic Index Dst
                                                                                          • COMESEP Geomagnetic storm forecast
                                                                                          • COMESEP Geomagnetic storm forecast
                                                                                          • Dst Index Forecast 1-hour
                                                                                             FORIND
                                                                                          • Forecast of Dst
                                                                                             IRF
                                                                                          • SolarHoldover
                                                                                             UAH
                                                                                          High Energy >10 MeV Protons
                                                                                          • SIDC Latest daily space weather bulletin
                                                                                          • GOES-15 Radiation Environment
                                                                                             SaRIF
                                                                                          • GOES-14 Radiation Environment
                                                                                             SaRIF
                                                                                          • GIOVE-A Radiation Environment
                                                                                             SaRIF
                                                                                          • Slot Region Radiation Environment
                                                                                             SaRIF
                                                                                          • COMESEP SEP forecast
                                                                                          • COMESEP SEP forecast
                                                                                          • HESPERIA RELeASE
                                                                                          • HESPERIA UMASEP-500
                                                                                          High Energy >10 MeV/nuc Ions
                                                                                            1-10 MeV Protons
                                                                                              1-10 MeV/nuc Ions
                                                                                                0.03-1 MeV/nuc Ions
                                                                                                  30 keV-8 MeV Electrons
                                                                                                  • GOES-15 Radiation Environment
                                                                                                     SaRIF
                                                                                                  • GOES-14 Radiation Environment
                                                                                                     SaRIF
                                                                                                  • GIOVE-A Radiation Environment
                                                                                                     SaRIF
                                                                                                  • Slot Region Radiation Environment
                                                                                                     SaRIF
                                                                                                  • MOSWOC Forecast
                                                                                                     SaRIF
                                                                                                  Thermal and Supra-thermal Electron and Ion Energy Spectra
                                                                                                  • SWIFF Plasmasphere model (SPM)
                                                                                                     SPM
                                                                                                  Thermal Ions Density and Temperature

                                                                                                    Magnetospheric Environment: Forecasts

                                                                                                    Geomagnetic Storm Condition
                                                                                                    • ap index forecast
                                                                                                       BGS
                                                                                                    • Ap index forecast
                                                                                                       BGS
                                                                                                    • 72-hour K(GBI) forecast
                                                                                                       BGS
                                                                                                    Geomagnetic Indices Kp and K
                                                                                                    • SIDC Latest daily space weather bulletin
                                                                                                    • Kp 3-hour Index Forecast 3-day
                                                                                                       FORIND
                                                                                                    • Wing 3-hour Kp Index Forecast 1-hour
                                                                                                       FORIND
                                                                                                    • Wing 3-hour Kp Index Forecast 4-hour
                                                                                                       FORIND
                                                                                                    • Largest Kp Index Forecast 27-day
                                                                                                       FORIND
                                                                                                    • Forecasts of dB/dt
                                                                                                       IRF
                                                                                                    • 72-hour K(GBI) forecast
                                                                                                       BGS
                                                                                                    • Short term (1 hour) Kp forecast
                                                                                                    Geomagnetic Index Ap and A
                                                                                                    • SIDC Latest daily space weather bulletin
                                                                                                    • ap index Forecast 27-day
                                                                                                       FORIND
                                                                                                    • ap index Forecast 3-day/SWPC
                                                                                                       FORIND
                                                                                                    • ap index Forecast 27-day/SWPC
                                                                                                       FORIND
                                                                                                    • ap index Forecast 45-day
                                                                                                       FORIND
                                                                                                    • ap index Forecast 3-day/BGS
                                                                                                       FORIND
                                                                                                    • ap index forecast
                                                                                                       BGS
                                                                                                    • Ap index forecast
                                                                                                       BGS
                                                                                                    Geomagnetic Index Dst
                                                                                                    • COMESEP Geomagnetic storm forecast
                                                                                                    • COMESEP Geomagnetic storm forecast
                                                                                                    • Dst Index Forecast 1-hour
                                                                                                       FORIND
                                                                                                    • Forecast of Dst
                                                                                                       IRF
                                                                                                    • SolarHoldover
                                                                                                       UAH
                                                                                                    High Energy >10 MeV Protons
                                                                                                    • SIDC Latest daily space weather bulletin
                                                                                                    • GOES-15 Radiation Environment
                                                                                                       SaRIF
                                                                                                    • GOES-14 Radiation Environment
                                                                                                       SaRIF
                                                                                                    • GIOVE-A Radiation Environment
                                                                                                       SaRIF
                                                                                                    • Slot Region Radiation Environment
                                                                                                       SaRIF
                                                                                                    • COMESEP SEP forecast
                                                                                                    • COMESEP SEP forecast
                                                                                                    • HESPERIA RELeASE
                                                                                                    • HESPERIA UMASEP-500
                                                                                                    High Energy >10 MeV/nuc Ions
                                                                                                      1-10 MeV Protons
                                                                                                        1-10 MeV/nuc Ions
                                                                                                          0.03-1 MeV/nuc Ions
                                                                                                            30 keV-8 MeV Electrons
                                                                                                            • GOES-15 Radiation Environment
                                                                                                               SaRIF
                                                                                                            • GOES-14 Radiation Environment
                                                                                                               SaRIF
                                                                                                            • GIOVE-A Radiation Environment
                                                                                                               SaRIF
                                                                                                            • Slot Region Radiation Environment
                                                                                                               SaRIF
                                                                                                            • MOSWOC Forecast
                                                                                                               SaRIF
                                                                                                            Thermal and Supra-thermal Electron and Ion Energy Spectra
                                                                                                            • SWIFF Plasmasphere model (SPM)
                                                                                                               SPM
                                                                                                            Thermal Ions Density and Temperature

                                                                                                              Thermospheric and Atmospheric Conditions: Model and Medium-term Forecast

                                                                                                              Local External Magnetic Field on Ground
                                                                                                              • Forecasts of dB/dt
                                                                                                                 IRF

                                                                                                              Thermospheric and Atmospheric Conditions: Forecasts

                                                                                                              Local External Magnetic Field on Ground
                                                                                                              • Forecasts of dB/dt
                                                                                                                 IRF

                                                                                                              Spacecraft Effects and Anomalies: (Near-) Real-time Measurements

                                                                                                              Spacecraft Radiation Monitors
                                                                                                              • Radiation environment inside ISS
                                                                                                              • PROBA-1/SREM dataset on SEDAT
                                                                                                                 SEDAT
                                                                                                              • Integral/SREM dataset on SEDAT
                                                                                                                 SEDAT
                                                                                                              • PROBA-1/SREM radiation rates
                                                                                                                 SREM
                                                                                                              • Integral/SREM radiation rates
                                                                                                                 SREM

                                                                                                              Spacecraft Effects and Anomalies: Model and Medium-term Forecast

                                                                                                              Orbital Data of Spacecraft Carrying Space Weather Instruments

                                                                                                                Spacecraft Effects and Anomalies: Forecasts

                                                                                                                Orbital Data of Spacecraft Carrying Space Weather Instruments

                                                                                                                  Alerts: Nowcasts

                                                                                                                  All Quiet Alert
                                                                                                                  • SIDC Latest all quiet alert
                                                                                                                  End-of-quiet Alert
                                                                                                                  • SIDC Latest all quiet alert

                                                                                                                  The propagation tool supports the assessment of CME (Coronal Mass Ejections) and CIR (Corotating Interaction Regions) and SEP (Solar Energetic Particle) arrival times at planets, spacecraft and other solar system objects such as comets. It supports the tracking of heliospheric structures using white light J-maps and has access to catalogues of CME/CIR trajectories. It is also connected to science archives of in-situ data (AMDA) and imagery data to assist with posteriori analysis.

                                                                                                                  The Drag-Based Model (DBM) tool provides predictions of the interplanetary coronal mass ejection (ICME) travel and its arrival at an arbitrary ecliptic-plane location or at already listed planets and satellites in ecliptic-plane orbits. Calculations are based on the assumption that the dominant force in the heliospheric dynamics of ICMEs is the magnetohydrodynamical (MHD) equivalent of the aerodynamic drag.

                                                                                                                  The Drag-Based Ensemble Model (DBEM) tool provides predictions of the Interplanetary Coronal Mass Ejection (ICME) travel and its arrival at an arbitrary ecliptic-plane location. Calculations are based on the standard DBM assumption that the dominant force is the MHD equivalent of aerodynamic drag. In the ensemble version the model is run multiple times by perturbing input parameters to build up a statistical view of the most likely outcome.

                                                                                                                  All Quiet Alert

                                                                                                                  SIDC Latest all quiet alert

                                                                                                                  End-of-quiet Alert

                                                                                                                  SIDC Latest all quiet alert

                                                                                                                  This section provides links to web pages or resources that are not part of the SSA Space Weather Network or esa.int domain.  These sites are not under ESA control, and therefore ESA is not responsible for any of the information or links that you may find there. 

                                                                                                                  Reference documents

                                                                                                                  • Directive 2013/59/Euratom Basic safety standards for protection against the dangers arising from exposure to ionising radiation.
                                                                                                                  • ECSS-E-ST-10-04C Space environment (15 November 2008)
                                                                                                                  • ECSS-E-ST-10-12C Method for the calculation of radiation received and its effects, and a policy for design margins (issued on 15 November 2008)
                                                                                                                  • ECSS-E-HB-10-12A Calculation of radiation and its effects and margin policy handbook (issued on 17 December 2010)
                                                                                                                    Choose Skin