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ESA SWE Service Page Mockup: SCO/for

Spacecraft Operation - In-orbit environment and effects forecast


The internal charging current and risk indicator for the past 8 days and a forecast for the next
24 hours provided by SaRIF for the location of the GOES-15 satellite at GEO. The internal
charging is calculated as the charging current behind 0.5 mm of Al shielding caused by
electrons from 150 keV up to 10 MeV.

The service “Spacecraft Operation - In-orbit environment and effects forecast” aims to provide an estimate for the near future of the space environment and its effects that could be experiences in regard to the operation of the spacecraft. To obtain a forecast of the space environment, the ESA Space Weather Service Network provides monitoring and forecasting of phenomena that can lead to potentially hazardous and sudden effects on spacecraft (e.g. magnetic storms, substorms, high-speed streams, solar energetic particle events, Earth-directed CMEs, meteor streams, and debris clouds). This continuous real-time monitoring and forecasting of the space weather environment provides the relevant information to take adequate decisions related to spacecraft operations to limit the impact of space weather. Real-time data allows the system to provide forecast of the effects on spacecraft operations of geomagnetic and ionospheric disturbances, as well as increased fluxes of particle radiation, meteoroids and space debris.

The service is intended for personnel such as spacecraft operators who need a forecast of space weather conditions and in-orbit effects for their current and future operations.

This service is implemented through a combination of products, tools and alerts which can be found through the following tabs along with expert support provided by the teams constituting the ESA Space Weather Service Network. Should you require further guidance in the use of this service, or have specific questions about any aspects of the service presented here, don’t hesitate to contact the Helpdesk.

 

Environment and effects forecasts
Near-Earth space environment and effects forecasts are provided by these products:

  • SaRIF provides colour-coded risk indicators showing the risk from internal charging and total ionising dose for the outer radiation belt and slot region;
  • COMESEP provides forecasts of geomagnetic storms and solar energetic particle (SEP) radiation storms;
  • HESPERIA provides forecasts of solar energetic particle (SEP) events at low and high proton energy ranges;
  • Alert/E provides forecast of geomagnetic and solar radiation storms generated by the Met Office Space Weather Operations Centre (MOSWOC);
  • FORIND provides nowcasts and forecasts of geomagnetic and solar indices needed for modelling in support of atmospheric drag calculation;
  • SPM forecasts the number density and temperature of electrons inside and outside the plasmasphere;
  • UAH provides geomagnetic indices, Dst Forecast, geomagnetic conditions and a regional geomagnetically induced currents proxy;
  • IRF provides a forecast of geomagnetic indices: Kp, Dst and dB/dt;
  • IMPC provides a near real-time information and data service for the current state of the ionosphere, related forecasts and warnings;
  • EIS provides foF2 long term prediction maps and forecasted foF2 values for the next 24 hours over each ionosonde;
  • ATMDEN provides atmospheric density estimates for atmospheric drag calculation;


Solar activity forecasts
Forecasts of solar activity and their propagation through the heliosphere are provided by these products:

  • ROB/SIDC provides probabilistic forecasts for the occurrence of X-ray flares determined by the Solar Influences Data Analysis Center (SIDC);
  • A-Effort is an on-line solar-flare prediction service that monitors, evaluates, and provides advance warning of intense solar flare activity;
  • UKMO provides the probability for the occurance of solar flares generated by the Met Office Space Weather Operations Centre (MOSWOC);
  • Flarecast is a fully automated forecasting system for solar flares;
  • Enlil/E provides predictions of CME arrival times and solar wind speed and density near Earth based on the Enlil 3d heliospheric model;
  • ESWF uses an empirical relation to derive the solar wind speed at Earth distance based on the area of coronal holes;
  • STA+CH provides a solar wind speed forecast, based on a STEREO-A persistence model;
  • SWFSC/E provides a simplified overview of all the availabe solar wind speed models at Earth;
  • DBM provides CME near-Earth arrival time predictions based on the magnetohydrodynamical drag;
  • DBEM provides CME arrival time predictions based on ensemble runs of the DBM model;
  • PROPTOOL allows users to propagate CMEs, corotating structures and SEPs through the interplanetary medium;


This service page is curated by the ESC Space Radiation. For further information, please contact SSCC Helpdesk

Throughout its existence, the Sun goes through various non-stationary active and non-equilibrium (often eruptive) processes; this can be broadly regarded as solar activity. The eruptive events caused by solar surface magnetic activity travel through the interplanetary medium and cause geomagnetic disturbances and other phenomena that may affect the functioning of spacecraft. For this reason, forecast of solar activity and its possible effects on spacecraft is essential for every spacecraft operator. From the Products and Tools tabs, a range of products can be accessed that can be useful for spacecraft operators.

Near-Earth environment and effects forecasts

Forecasts of spacecraft effects, such as internal and surface spacecraft charging, are provided by the SaRIF product for the outer radiation belt and slot region based on energetic electron spectra. Forecasts for solar proton events are provided by the COMESEP, HESPERIA and Alert/E products. Forecasts for geomagnetic storms in terms of indices are provided by the UAH, IRF, COMESEP, ALert/E and FORIND products. The latter product is focused towards nowcasts and forecasts of geomagnetic and solar indices needed for atmospheric modeling in support of atmospheric drag calculation. To access forecasts of the number density and the temperature of the electrons inside and outside the plasmasphere, visit SPM. The ionospheric conditions are forecasted by IMPC, EIS and ATMDEN.

Solar Activity forecasts and propagation through the heliosphere

Solar Flares forecasts are provided by automatic tools (A-Effort, Flarecast) and human forecasters (ROB/SIDC, UKMO). The CME propagation times are provided by DBM (near Earth), DBEM, and Enlil/E. The solar wind speed predictions can be obtained from three products: ESWF, STA+CH, and Enlil/E (also provides solar wind density). A simplified overview of all these models is available through SWFSC/E. To track CMEs, co-rotating streams and energetic particles in the heliosphere, the tool PROPTOOL can be used. The SIDC also provides a daily space weather bulletin.

For further information, please contact the SSCC Helpdesk

Solar Activity: Forecasts

Solar Flares
  • FLARECAST Solar flare forecast
  • A-EFFort Solar flare forecast
  • SIDC Latest Solar flare forecast
  • SIDC Latest daily space weather bulletin
  • UKMO Latest Solar flare forecast
     UKMO
CMEs
  • SIDC Latest daily space weather bulletin
CME propagation forecast
  • H-ESC product assessment report
  • STEREO-A HI J-Map Annotated (Beacon Mode)
  • STEREO-A HI J-Map Annotated (Science Mode)
  • Heliospheric solar wind forecasts for Mars
  • Heliospheric solar wind forecasts for Mercury
  • Near-Earth CME arrival predictions (WSA-Enlil + Ensemble)
  • Heliospheric solar wind forecasts for Venus
  • CME arrival time predictions (DBEM)
     DBEM
  • CME near-Earth arrival time predictions (DBM)
     DBM
  • Heliospheric propagation tool
Coronal Holes
  • Synchronous synoptic maps of the solar corona in the UV and extreme-UV - Forecast
  • SIDC Latest daily space weather bulletin
Solar Disc Magnetic Fields
International Sunspot number
  • Sunspot Number Forecast SC 12-month
     FORIND
  • Sunspot Number Forecast CM 12-month
     FORIND
  • Sunspot Number Forecast ISM 12-month
     FORIND
  • Sunspot Number Forecast ICM 12-month
     FORIND
  • Sunspot Number Forecast IMLM 12-month
     FORIND
  • Sunspot Number Forecast multi-year
     FORIND
Sunspot Group Data
    Solar Filament Data
      10.7cm Solar Radio Flux (F10.7)
      • SIDC Latest 10.7cm Solar radio flux (F10.7) forecast
      • F10.7 Index Forecast 27-day/BGS
         FORIND
      • F10.7 Index Forecast multi-year
         FORIND
      • F10.7 Index Forecast 27-day/SWPC
         FORIND
      • F10.7 Index Forecast 45-day
         FORIND
      • F10.7 Index Forecast 30-day Absolute
         FORIND
      • F10.7 Index Forecast 30-day Adjusted
         FORIND
      Solar EUV Index (S10.7)
        Solar EUV Index (E10.7)
          Solar FUV Index (M10.7)
            Solar X-ray & UV Index (Y10.7)
              Ionospheric Index (IG12)
              • IG12 Index Forecast multi-year
                 FORIND
              Solar X-ray Flux
                Solar EUV Integrated Flux
                  Solar UV Flux

                    Interplanetary Medium at L1: (Near-) Real-time Measurements

                    Solar Wind Bulk Density

                      Interplanetary Medium at L1: Forecasts

                      High Energy >10 MeV Protons
                      High Energy >10 MeV/nuc Ions
                        1-10 MeV Protons
                          1-10 MeV/nuc Ions
                            0.03-1 MeV/nuc Ions
                              2-50 MeV Solar Electrons
                                30 keV-8 MeV Electrons
                                  Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF)
                                  Solar Wind Bulk Velocity
                                  • SIDC Latest daily space weather bulletin
                                  • Solar Wind Forecast Speed Comparison
                                  • Near-Earth solar wind forecasts (WSA-Enlil + Ensemble)
                                  • Empirical solar wind speed forecast
                                     ESWF24
                                  • Empirical solar wind speed forecast
                                     ESWF
                                  • Solar wind speed forecast (STEREO-A persistence model)
                                     STA+CH
                                  • AWARE_NEXT Enhanced 24 hour solar wind forecast
                                  Solar Wind Bulk Density
                                  • Near-Earth solar wind forecasts (WSA-Enlil + Ensemble)

                                  Interplanetary Medium Outside L1: Forecasts

                                  Solar Energetic Particle Events
                                  • SIDC Latest daily space weather bulletin
                                  Interplanetary Medium Data
                                  • Heliospheric solar wind forecasts for Mars
                                  • Heliospheric solar wind forecasts for Mercury
                                  • Heliospheric solar wind forecasts for Venus
                                  • Solar wind propagation tool
                                  • Magnetic Connectivity Tool

                                  Magnetospheric Environment: (Near-) Real-time Measurements

                                  Thermal Ions Density and Temperature

                                    Magnetospheric Environment: Forecasts

                                    Geomagnetic Storm Condition
                                    • 72-hour ap forecast
                                       BGS
                                    • 27-day Ap forecast
                                       BGS
                                    • 72-hour K(GBI) forecast
                                       BGS
                                    • Human global geomagnetic activity forecast
                                       BGS
                                    • StormRisk
                                    Geomagnetic Indices Kp and K
                                    • SIDC Latest daily space weather bulletin
                                    • Kp 3-hour Index Forecast 3-day
                                       FORIND
                                    • Wing 3-hour Kp Index Forecast 1-hour
                                       FORIND
                                    • Wing 3-hour Kp Index Forecast 4-hour
                                       FORIND
                                    • Largest Kp Index Forecast 27-day
                                       FORIND
                                    • 72-hour K(GBI) forecast
                                       BGS
                                    • Forecasts of dB/dt
                                       IRF
                                    • SIDC Latest 3-day K Dourbes forecast
                                    Geomagnetic Index Ap and A
                                    • SIDC Latest daily space weather bulletin
                                    • ap index Forecast 27-day
                                       FORIND
                                    • ap index Forecast 3-day/SWPC
                                       FORIND
                                    • ap index Forecast 27-day/SWPC
                                       FORIND
                                    • ap index Forecast 45-day
                                       FORIND
                                    • ap index Forecast 3-day/BGS
                                       FORIND
                                    • 72-hour ap forecast
                                       BGS
                                    • 27-day Ap forecast
                                       BGS
                                    Geomagnetic Index Dst
                                    • COMESEP Geomagnetic storm forecast
                                    • Dst Index Forecast 1-hour
                                       FORIND
                                    • Forecast of Dst
                                       IRF
                                    • UAH-SWE Subscription
                                       UAH
                                    • SolarHoldover
                                       UAH
                                    High Energy >10 MeV Protons
                                    • SIDC Latest daily space weather bulletin
                                    • COMESEP SEP forecast
                                    • HESPERIA UMASEP-500
                                    High Energy >10 MeV/nuc Ions
                                      1-10 MeV Protons
                                        1-10 MeV/nuc Ions
                                          0.03-1 MeV/nuc Ions
                                            30 keV-8 MeV Electrons
                                            • GOES-16 Radiation Environment
                                               SaRIF
                                            • GIOVE-A Radiation Environment
                                               SaRIF
                                            • Slot Region Radiation Environment
                                               SaRIF
                                            • MOSWOC Forecast
                                               SaRIF
                                            • Forecaster Summary
                                               SaRIF
                                            Thermal and Supra-thermal Electron and Ion Energy Spectra
                                            • SWIFF Plasmasphere model (SPM)
                                               SPM
                                            Thermal Ions Density and Temperature

                                              Thermospheric and Atmospheric Conditions: Forecasts

                                              Vertical Total Electron Content Map
                                              • TEC map (Europe), 1hr forecast
                                                 IMPC
                                              • TEC map (Global), 1hr forecast
                                                 IMPC
                                              URSI Ionospheric Parameters
                                              • EIS European maps of foF2 long term predictions
                                                 EIS
                                              • EIS Maps of forecasted foF2 over Europe for the next 24 hours
                                                 EIS
                                              • EIS Forecasted foF2 values for the next 24 hours over each ionosonde
                                                 EIS
                                              Neutral Density in Thermosphere
                                              • Total Density 1-3 Day Forecast
                                                 ATMDEN
                                              • Total Density 1-27 Day Forecast
                                                 ATMDEN
                                              Neutral Wind Velocity in Thermosphere
                                                Scintillation Indices and Parameters
                                                • S4 and Err(S4) 6-hour forecast modelled maps
                                                   ISM
                                                • SigmaPhi and Err(SigmaPhi) 6-hour forecast modelled maps
                                                   ISM
                                                • S4 and Err(S4) 6h forecast modelled values at a given location
                                                   ISM
                                                • SigmaPhi and Err(SigmaPhi) 6h forecast modelled values at a given location
                                                   ISM
                                                Atomic Oxygen Density
                                                  Local External Magnetic Field on Ground
                                                  • Forecasts of dB/dt
                                                     IRF
                                                  Neutral Density and Wind
                                                  • Total Density 1-3 Day Forecast
                                                     ATMDEN
                                                  • Total Density 1-27 Day Forecast
                                                     ATMDEN

                                                  Microparticle Environment: Forecasts

                                                  Micro Particle Flux
                                                    Known Periods/events of Increased Microparticle Flux

                                                      Spacecraft Effects and Anomalies: Forecasts

                                                      Spacecraft Radiation Monitors
                                                        Orbital Data of Spacecraft Carrying Space Weather Instruments
                                                        Spacecraft Housekeeping Telemetry
                                                          Deep Dielectric Charging
                                                          • GOES-16 Internal Charging Current
                                                             SaRIF
                                                          • GIOVE-A Internal Charging Current
                                                             SaRIF
                                                          • Slot Region Internal Charging Current
                                                             SaRIF
                                                          Surface Charging
                                                            Floating Spacecraft Potential

                                                              The Drag-Based Model (DBM) tool provides predictions of the interplanetary coronal mass ejection (ICME) travel and its arrival at an arbitrary ecliptic-plane location or at already listed planets and satellites in ecliptic-plane orbits. Calculations are based on the assumption that the dominant force in the heliospheric dynamics of ICMEs is the magnetohydrodynamical (MHD) equivalent of the aerodynamic drag. From portal release 3.4 DBM is provided as part of the DBEM product.

                                                              The Drag-Based Ensemble Model (DBEM) tool provides predictions of the Interplanetary Coronal Mass Ejection (ICME) travel and its arrival at an arbitrary ecliptic-plane location. Calculations are based on the standard DBM assumption that the dominant force is the MHD equivalent of aerodynamic drag. In the ensemble version the model is run multiple times by perturbing input parameters to build up a statistical view of the most likely outcome. The DBEM includes the ability to specify the CME geometry using either cone model or the graduated cylindrical shell model characteristics of the CME. By incorporating dynamic background solar wind speed, now DBEM is able to provide Earthward directed CME arrival times and speed with more accuracy.

                                                              The propagation tool supports the assessment of CME (Coronal Mass Ejections) and CIR (Corotating Interaction Regions) and SEP (Solar Energetic Particle) arrival times at planets, spacecraft and other solar system objects such as comets. It supports the tracking of heliospheric structures using white light J-maps and has access to catalogues of CME/CIR trajectories. It is also connected to science archives of in-situ data (AMDA) and imagery data to assist with posteriori analysis.

                                                              All Quiet Alert

                                                              SIDC Latest all quiet alert

                                                              End-of-quiet Alert

                                                              SIDC Latest all quiet alert

                                                              Solar Flare Detection

                                                              UGraz/KSO Latest Solar flare alert

                                                              SIDC Latest Solar GOES-flare alert

                                                              SIDC Latest human moderated alert

                                                              Solar Flare Detection and Location

                                                              UGraz/KSO Latest Solar flare alert

                                                              SIDC Latest human moderated alert

                                                              CME Onset

                                                              SIDC/CACTus Latest automated halo CME alert

                                                              H-ESC product assessment report

                                                              No preview available

                                                              Near-Earth space weather notifications

                                                              No preview available

                                                              Near-Earth CME arrival predictions (WSA-Enlil + Ensemble)

                                                              No preview available

                                                              Halo CME Onset

                                                              SIDC/CACTus Latest automated halo CME alert

                                                              SIDC Latest human moderated alert

                                                              Coronal Hole Notification

                                                               

                                                               

                                                              CIR Alert

                                                              SIDC Latest human moderated alert

                                                              AWARE_NEXT Enhanced 24 hour solar wind forecast

                                                              Near-Earth space weather notifications

                                                              No preview available

                                                              Automated WARnings of STEREO-A arrivals

                                                              Automated WARnings of Earth arrivals

                                                               AWARE

                                                              Solar Particle Event Onset

                                                              Near-Earth space weather notifications

                                                              No preview available

                                                              SIDC Latest human moderated alert

                                                              Geomagnetic Storm Warning / Solar Wind Shock Arrival

                                                              Near-Earth space weather notifications

                                                              No preview available

                                                              Automated WARnings of STEREO-A arrivals

                                                              Automated WARnings of Earth arrivals

                                                               AWARE

                                                              StormRisk

                                                              No preview available

                                                              Geomagnetic Storm Onset

                                                              SIDC Latest human moderated alert

                                                              SolarHeed

                                                               UAH

                                                              No preview available

                                                              UAH-SWE Subscription

                                                               UAH

                                                              No preview available

                                                              Sentinel G

                                                               UAH

                                                              No preview available

                                                              Sentinel C

                                                               UAH

                                                              No preview available

                                                              UAH-SWE Report

                                                               UAH

                                                              No preview available

                                                              Ionospheric Disturbance Detection

                                                              EIS Alerts for ionospheric disturbances in the European sector

                                                               EIS

                                                              SISTED warning

                                                               IonSAT

                                                              No preview available

                                                              SOLERA-drift warning

                                                               IonSAT

                                                              No preview available

                                                              Ground Level Enhancement Detection

                                                              GLE Alert++

                                                               ANeMoS

                                                              This section provides links to web pages or resources that are not part of the ESA Space Weather Service Network or esa.int domain.  These sites are not under ESA control, and therefore ESA is not responsible for any of the information or links that you may find there. 

                                                              Reference documents

                                                              • ECSS-E-ST-10-04C Space environment (15 June 2020)
                                                              • ECSS-E-HB-10-12A Calculation of radiation and its effects and margin policy handbook (issued on 17 December 2010)
                                                                Choose Skin