Spacecraft Operation - Mission risk analysis

The expected variation of the omni-directional 10 eV
to 40 keV electron population at MEO orbit (L=4-6)
due to the geomagnetic variability in terms of Kp.
The service “Spacecraft Operation - Mission risk analysis” aims to provide the necessary information to perform a mission risk analysis and an assessment of the mission susceptibility for a given spacecraft due to the expected space environment conditions. This information is based on statistical models and historical data of the space environment (i.e. ionising radiation, plasma, microparticles, atmosphere, and UV) and its effects (e.g. dose, single event upset, sensor background, cumulated charge, spacecraft anomalies, microparticle impacts) . The service is intended for personnel such as spacecraft operators in the planning phase of operations.
This service is implemented through a combination of products and tools that can be found through the following tabs along with expert support provided by the teams constituting the ESA Space Weather Service Network. Should you require further guidance in the use of this service, or have specific questions about any aspects of the service presented here, don’t hesitate to contact the Helpdesk.
A number of models and in-orbit sensor datasets are made available with the help of tools and products such as:
- the Space Environment Information System (SPENVIS) coupling several empirical and engineering models of the space environment and its effects on spacecraft or components based on a mission plan;
- the Space Environment Data System (SEDAT) allows engineering analyses to be carried out on datasets related to the spacecraft charged particle environments;
- the Solar Energetic Particle Environment Modelling application (SEPEM) allowing solar energetic particle statistical analyses on an extended set of cross-calibrated data;
- the European Debris Impact Database (EDID) provides data processing and dissemination functions for measurements from European debris and meteoroid impact detectors;
- the Space Research Laboratory Solar Energetic Particles (UTU-SEP) products provide access to a high energy SEP event list as well as the calculation of the expected high energy proton fluence and worst-case proton flux for a specific mission length due to SEPs;
- measurements and derived data products from the Energetic Particle Telescope (EPT) on PROBA-V;
- measurements and derived data products from the Standard Radiation Environment Monitors (SREM) on Proba-1, Integral, Rosetta, Herschel and Planck;
- the electron population model from Mullard Space Science Laboratory (MSSL) for LEO, MEO and GEO as function of solar wind speed and Kp index;
- the SWIFF Plasmasphere Model (SPM) dynamical simulation provides the number density and temperatures of the electrons as a function of time;
- the Satellite Risk Indicators Forecast (SaRIF) provides colour-coded risk indicators showing the risk from internal charging and total ionising dose for the outer radiation belt and slot region, as well as a recontruction of these environments;
- the Space Weather Data Browsing and Analysis (SWE Data) provides access to space weather environment data.
This service page is curated by the ESC Space Radiation. For further information, please contact SSCC Helpdesk.
The dynamic space environment caused by a multitude of space weather phenomena (e.g. solar flares, coronal mass ejections, solar energetic particle events) may cause anomalous effects and have severe consequences for spacecraft. During the planning phase of a mission or specific operations, a detailed mission risk analysis and an assessment of the susceptibility due to space weather effects need to be performed. The expected space environment conditions can be obtained from statistical models and historical data.
From the Products tab, a range of products can be accessed that provide information on space weather events and the space environment conditions during a specific time in the past.
Measurements and detection of solar flares and coronal mass ejections are available from the Solar Influences Data Analysis Center (SIDC) and the Kanzelhöhe Observatory (KSO). The international sunspot number is provided by the SIDC as well. Solar wind conditions and statistical long-term plasma conditions at L1 can be obtained through the Product Browser and Statistical Products pages from the Heliospheric Weather Expert Service Centre (HPARC/PB and HPARC/STAT).
A catalogue of very high-energy solar particle events, and models of the very high-energy solar energetic proton fluence and peak flux are provided by the University of Turku (UTU). The Solar Energetic Particle Environment Modelling (SEPEM) application server provides a reference event list for solar energetic protons, a reference data set for protons and helium, and tools to perform solar energetic particle statistical analyses on an extended set of cross-calibrated data. An archive of energetic particle flux measurements (electrons, protons and helium) from the Energetic Particle Telescope (EPT) on board PROBA-V at LEO can be accessed, as well as daily radiation situation reports comparing the measurements from several Standard Radiation Environment Monitors (SREM) in various key regions with reference particle rates are provided. Electron population models at GEO and LEO are provided by Mullard Space Science Laboratory (MSSL). Besides forecasts for spacecraft effects and the radiation environment for the outer radiation belt and slot region, the SaRIF product also provides a post event reconstruction for the energetic electron spectra in those regions based on the BAS-RBM model.
An archive of Total Electron Content (TEC) is provided through the Swarm Utilisation Analysis (SUA) interface provided by the German Research Centre for Geosciences (GFZ), while TEC and foF2 maps for the European region are provided through the European Ionosonde Service (EIS) operated by the National Observatory of Athens (NOA). An archive of the geomagnetic indices Kp and Ap is provided by GFZ as well.
A large set of measurements can also be accessed through the Space Weather Data Browsing and Analysis (SWE Data) and AMDA web interfaces. The European Debris Impact Database (EDID) contains a large database of events measured from debris and meteoroid impact detectors together with spacecraft housekeeping data.
In order to study the specific impact on a spacecraft in more depth, a tool such as the Space Environment Information System (SPENVIS) could be considered. This tool allows the execution of a set of space environment models based on a mission scenario (mission duration, typical spacecraft trajectories and spacecraft attitude) and to evaluate impacts and risks by propagating the results into engineering models. The tool includes graphical visualisation and an extended help with background information and references to the European standards.
A detailed overview of the typical programmatic concerns related to the space environment is provided in the
For further information, please contact the SSCC Helpdesk.
Solar Activity: Data Archives
Solar Activity: Models and Reconstruction
Interplanetary Medium at L1: Data Archives
Interplanetary Medium at L1: (Near-) Real-time Measurements
Interplanetary Medium at L1: Models and Reconstruction
- Statistical long-term plasma products - L1 p>10MeV
- Automated Multi Dataset Analysis (AMDA)
- SPENVIS Short-term solar particle models
- SPENVIS Long-term solar particle models
- SPENVIS Galactic cosmic ray models
- Very high-energy solar energetic proton fluence
- Very high-energy solar energetic proton peak flux
- Solar very high-energy particle event catalogue
- Very high-energy solar proton event database
Interplanetary Medium Outside L1: Data Archives
Interplanetary Medium Outside L1: Models and Reconstruction
Magnetospheric Environment: Data Archives
- Automated Multi Dataset Analysis (AMDA)
- Kp, K, Ap, A, Dst archives on SEDAT
- Kp - planetary three-hour magnetic index archive
- 3-hourly K index: Lerwick, Eskdalemuir, Hartland
- 3-hourly Kp index
- 3-hourly K(GBI) index
- K-index from magnetometer stations in north Europe
- Most recent definitive Kp index
- Kp and Ap index archive
- Hp60 and ap60 index archive
- Hp30 and ap30 index archive
- SIDC 3-day K Dourbes forecast archive
- PROBA-V/EPT Proton flux spectra time series
- PROBA-V/EPT High-latitude/polar proton flux survey
- AZUR/EI-88 dataset on SEDAT
- GOES/SEM-EPS datasets on SEDAT
- UARS/PEM-HEPS dataset on SEDAT
- PROBA-1/SREM dataset on SEDAT
- Integral/SREM dataset on SEDAT
- IMP-8/CPME and CRNC datasets on SEDAT
- MIR/REM dataset on SEDAT
- STRV1B/REM dataset on SEDAT
- XMM/ERMD dataset on SEDAT
- SEPEM Reference proton data set
- Raw and cleaned GOES/SEM proton channels in SEPEM
- Raw IMP8/CPME proton channels in SEPEM
- Raw and cleaned IMP8/GME proton channels in SEPEM
- HESPERIA UMASEP-500
- PROBA-1/SREM radiation rates
- Integral/SREM radiation rates
- EDRS-C/NGRM L2 Proton Fluxes
- PROBA-V/EPT Helium flux spectra time series
- PROBA-V/EPT High-latitude/polar helium flux survey
- AZUR/EI-88 dataset on SEDAT
- GOES/SEM-EPS datasets on SEDAT
- METOP02/SEM2 dataset on SEDAT
- IMP-8/CPME and CRNC datasets on SEDAT
- POES/SEM-2 datasets on SEDAT
- SEPEM Reference helium data set
- Raw and cleaned GOES/SEM helium channels in SEPEM
- Raw IMP8/CPME ion channels in SEPEM
- Raw IMP8/CPME helium channels in SEPEM
- Raw and cleaned IMP8/GME helium channels in SEPEM
- Automated Multi Dataset Analysis (AMDA)
- AZUR/EI-88 dataset on SEDAT
- GOES/SEM-EPS datasets on SEDAT
- UARS/PEM-HEPS dataset on SEDAT
- IMP-8/CPME and CRNC datasets on SEDAT
- XMM/ERMD dataset on SEDAT
- SEPEM Reference proton data set
- Raw and cleaned GOES/SEM proton channels in SEPEM
- Raw IMP8/CPME proton channels in SEPEM
- Raw and cleaned IMP8/GME proton channels in SEPEM
- AZUR/EI-88 dataset on SEDAT
- GOES/SEM-EPS datasets on SEDAT
- IMP-8/CPME and CRNC datasets on SEDAT
- SEPEM Reference helium data set
- Raw and cleaned GOES/SEM helium channels in SEPEM
- Raw IMP8/CPME ion channels in SEPEM
- Raw IMP8/CPME helium channels in SEPEM
- Raw and cleaned IMP8/GME helium channels in SEPEM
- Automated Multi Dataset Analysis (AMDA)
- GOES-16 Radiation Environment
- GOES-15 Radiation Environment
- GOES-14 Radiation Environment
- GIOVE-A Radiation Environment
- Slot Region Radiation Environment
- MOSWOC Forecast
- Forecaster Summary
- Best Reconstruction of the Radiation Environment (GOES-15)
- Best Reconstruction of the Radiation Environment (GOES-14)
- Best Reconstruction of the Radiation Environment (GIOVE-A)
- Best Reconstruction of the Radiation Environment (slot)
- Best Reconstruction of the Radiation Environment (GOES-16)
- PROBA-V/EPT Electron flux spectra time series
- PROBA-V/EPT High-latitude/polar electron flux survey
- GOES/SEM-EPS datasets on SEDAT
- Meteosat-3/SEM2 dataset on SEDAT
- METOP02/SEM2 dataset on SEDAT
- CRRES/MEA dataset on SEDAT
- Equator_S/EPI dataset on SEDAT
- PROBA-1/SREM dataset on SEDAT
- Integral/SREM dataset on SEDAT
- IMP-8/CPME and CRNC datasets on SEDAT
- ISEE1/MEPI dataset on SEDAT
- ISEE1/KED dataset on SEDAT
- MIR/REM dataset on SEDAT
- STRV1B/REM dataset on SEDAT
- POES/SEM-2 datasets on SEDAT
- XMM/ERMD dataset on SEDAT
- Raw GOES/SEM >2 MeV electron channel in SEPEM
- Raw IMP8/CPME electron channels in SEPEM
- Raw IMP8/GME electron channels in SEPEM
- PROBA-1/SREM radiation rates
- Integral/SREM radiation rates
- EDRS-C/NGRM L2 Electron Fluxes
Magnetospheric Environment: (Near-) Real-time Measurements
Magnetospheric Environment: Models and Reconstruction
- PROBA-V/EPT Proton flux geographical maps
- PROBA-V/EPT SAA proton energy spectrum characterisation
- Static radiation model of energetic protons at LEO
- SEPEM Reference event list
- SPENVIS Standard radiation belt models
- SPENVIS IRENE Radiation belt models
- SPENVIS Short-term solar particle models
- SPENVIS Long-term solar particle models
- SPENVIS Galactic cosmic ray models
- Very high-energy solar energetic proton fluence
- Very high-energy solar energetic proton peak flux
- Very high-energy solar proton event database
- EDRS-C/NGRM Particle Daily Fluences
- PROBA-V/EPT Helium flux geographical maps
- PROBA-V/EPT SAA helium energy spectrum characterisation
- Static radiation model of energetic helium ions at LEO
- SPENVIS Short-term solar particle models
- SPENVIS Long-term solar particle models
- SPENVIS Galactic cosmic ray models
- High-energy solar heavy ion fluence model
- High-energy solar heavy ion peak flux
- Automated Multi Dataset Analysis (AMDA)
- PROBA-V/EPT Electron flux geographical maps
- PROBA-V/EPT Auroral electron energy spectrum characterisation
- Static radiation model of energetic electrons at LEO
- SPENVIS Standard radiation belt models
- SPENVIS IRENE Radiation belt models
- SPENVIS Internal deep dielectric charging
- EDRS-C/NGRM Particle Daily Fluences
Thermospheric and Atmospheric Conditions: Data Archives
Thermospheric and Atmospheric Conditions: Models and Reconstruction
Microparticle Environment: Data Archives
Microparticle Environment: Models and Reconstruction
Spacecraft Effects and Anomalies: Data Archives
- Radiation environment outside the ISS
- Radiation environment inside ISS
- Accumulated dose in human phantoms on ISS
- PROBA-1/SREM dataset on SEDAT
- Integral/SREM dataset on SEDAT
- Rosetta/SREM dataset on SEDAT
- Herschel/SREM dataset on SEDAT
- Planck/SREM dataset on SEDAT
- MIR/REM dataset on SEDAT
- STRV1B/REM dataset on SEDAT
- PROBA-1/SREM radiation rates
- Integral/SREM radiation rates
- Rosetta/SREM radiation rates
- Herschel/SREM radiation rates
- Planck/SREM radiation rates
- GOES-16 Total Ionising Dose and Dose Rate
- GOES-15 Total Ionising Dose and Dose Rate
- GOES-14 Total Ionising Dose and Dose Rate
- GIOVE-A Total Ionising Dose and Dose Rate
- Slot Region Total Ionising Dose and Dose Rate
- PROBA-V/EPT Total ionizing dose alert at LEO
- PROBA-V/EPT Total non-ionizing dose alert at LEO
- Radiation environment outside the ISS
- Radiation environment inside ISS
- Accumulated dose in human phantoms on ISS
Spacecraft Effects and Anomalies: Models and Reconstruction
SEPEM (Solar Energetic Particle Environment Modelling) is a WWW interface to solar energetic particle data and a range of modelling tools and functionalities intended to support space mission design. The system provides an implementation of several well known modelling methodologies, built on cleaned datasets. It also gives the user increased flexibility in his/her analysis and allows generation of mission integrated fluence statistics, peak flux statistics and other functionalities. It also integrates effects tools that calculate single event upset rates and radiation doses for a variety of scenarios.
SPENVIS (Space Environment Information System) is a web-based interface for assessing the space environment and its effects on spacecraft systems and crews. The system is used for mission analysis and planning. SPENVIS includes several empirical models of the space environment covering mainly cosmic rays, solar energetic particles, the natural radiation belts, magnetic fields, space plasmas and the upper atmosphere. A range of engineering models are also available to help assess the effects of the space environment on spacecraft such as surface and internal charging, energy deposition, solar cell damage and SEU rates. Usually these later models take their inputs from the empirical models present in SPENVIS. The system also includes extensive background information on the space environment, the environment models and the related standards.
The Space Research Laboratory Solar Energetic Particles (UTU-SEP) products consist of several tools to calculate expected very high-energy solar energetic particle environment specifications for mission durations between 0.5 and 7 years: cumulative and worst-case event fluences for very high-energy (10-1000 MeV) protons, peak flux for very high-energy (330-700 MeV) protons, cumulative and worst-case fluences for high-energy (13-100 MeV/n) heavy ions. A catalogue of SEP events based on SOHO/ERNE observations of 55-80 MeV protons is also provided containing information on event start and end times (protons and electrons), peak intensity (high-energy protons and electrons), proton and heavy ion fluence, and information on associated solar flares and CMEs.
SEDAT (Space Environment Data System) is a tool for the engineering analysis of spacecraft charged particle environments. The facility provides access to the ODI database containing a large and comprehensive set of data about that environment as measured in-situ by a number of space missions. The user can select a set of space environment data appropriate to the engineering problem under study. SEDAT also offers a set of software tools, which can operate on the data retrieved from the database. These tools allow the user to carry out a wide range of engineering analyses. SEDAT is using a GUI written in Java.
EDID (European Debris Impact Database) provides automated data processing and dissemination functions for measurements retrieved from European debris and meteoroids impact detectors. It covers impacts from the DEBIE-1, DEBIE-2 and GORID detectors. Users can access more than 3,000,000 debris and micro-meteoroid event records plus sensor and spacecraft housekeeping data via a user-friendly web interface. Filters can be defined for each available parameter and be used for regular data retrieval.
The AMDA system provides an archive of planetary, solar wind, Earth magnetosphere and ionosphere mission and ground based products. In addition it supports a range of standard models such as magnetic footprints, magnetic fields, solar wind propagation to planets and probes as well as access to external databases of observations and simulations. A key functionality of the system is its embedded plotting, data mining and cataloguing functionalities which are extremely useful in relation to posteriori analysis.
SWE Data is a web application that provides access to a wide range of Space Weather related data sources covering the areas of the spacecraft, ionospheric, and ground effects. SWE Data allows the user to access all data contained in the repository providing analysis and visualisation tools from these disparate sources.
No alerts are associated with this service.
This section provides links to web pages or resources that are not part of the ESA Space Weather Service Network or esa.int domain. These sites are not under ESA control, and therefore ESA is not responsible for any of the information or links that you may find there.
Reference documents
- ECSS-E-ST-10-04C Space environment (15 June 2020)
- ECSS-E-HB-10-12A Calculation of radiation and its effects and margin policy handbook (issued on 17 December 2010)