UMASEPForecaster (in discussion)

University of Malaga - Solar Energetic Particle Event Forecaster

Developer

University of Malaga, Space Weather Research Group, Spain

Technical Group

Spacecraft & Aircraft Effects

Service objective

Automated real-time prediction of Solar Energetic Proton (SEP) events.

Products

• Real-time prediction of the onset and intensity of well-connected SEPs (Version 2.0).
• Real-time prediction of the onset of poorly-connected SEPs (Beta version).

Link to Project Website

http://spaceweather.uma.es/

Service description

In order to predict well-connected SEPs, the UMA SEP Forecaster identifies if there exists a magnetic connection between the associated flare and the Earth, by correlating X-ray and differential proton data at 1 AU.

The correlation analysis is performed by using a signal processing technique, specifically designed for this domain, which estimates the level of connectivity and he traversal time of the first particles from the solar region to the Earth during the well-connected event. This forecaster also predicts the onset of poorly-connected SEPs by estimating log-linear increasing rates of protons at different energies as the observer is better connected to the shock nose from behind. The graphical output of this forecaster is presented in figure 1, which shows the expected evolution of the integral proton flux (E>10MeV) during the first hours of the event.

Fig. 1. As an example, the upper time series shows Integral Proton Flux (E>10 MeV) from a given timespan, as well as the predicted flux for the next hours. The middle time series shows the current solar activity in terms of X-rays. The lower time series shows the estimated magnetic connection. The forecast is graphically presented in the upper-right area.

The following figures below illustrate the possible scenarios and how the SEP forecaster shows them.

Fig. 2. Prediction of a quiet scenario in terms of well-connected proton flux (E>10MeV). No well-connected SEP event is expected.	Fig. 3. Prediction of a well-connected SEP event. It graphically shows the expected onset and peak intensity of the prompt component (first hours) of the SEP.

The warning level of the forecast is shown at the top of the highlighted area, at the right of the forecast panel (see above):

• Warning level=0 means that a well-connected SEP event is not expected.
• Warning level=1 means that a high magnetic connectivity has been detected. It also means that a well-connected SEP event is not expected.
• Warning level=2 means that an integral proton flux enhancement is expected. It also means that a well-connected SEP event is not expected.
• Warning level=3 means that a well-connected SEP event is expected. The details are shown graphically and summarized below the highlighted area.
• Warning level=4 means that a SEP event is occurring.

This forecaster has been evaluated extensively, using historical 5-minute resolution data from cycles 22 and 23. Please go to the UMA performance evaluation page for more details.

Contact / Manager

Marlon Núñez